EUR/USD Outlook – February 14-18

(From ForexCranch.Com, By Yohay)

Another volatile week passed on Euro traders. The upcoming week is very busy, with GDP figures expected to rock the common currency. Here’s an outlook for the European events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
The resignation of Axel Weber from the ECB is a loss for the Euro as well, as the Bundesbank’s president is a known “hawk”. Apart from the indicators, note headlines from Ireland, Greece and Portugal – the debt crisis is still with us.EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it.



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1.Jean-Claude Trichet talks: Sunday, 17:00. The president of the ECB had his share of pushing the Euro higher and sending it lower in recent months. In a speech in Liege, Belgium, he may shed light on his views about the economic situation, inflation, employment and more, and will set the tone for the new week.

2.Industrial Production: Monday, 10:00. All-European industrial output exceeded expectations and provided a lot of hope last month, with a strong rise of 1.4%. A correction is predicted this time, with a drop of 0.1%.

3.French GDP: Tuesday, 6:30. Europe’s second largest economy posts its GDP before the rest of the European countries, making this release important. Growth rate in Q3 is predicted to stand at 0.6%, after a modest rate of 0.3% in Q3.

4.German GDP: Tuesday, 7:00. Europe’s largest economy and powerhouse is expected to post a growth rate of 0.5% in Q4 of 2010, completing a good year. Q3 saw a rise of 0.7% and Q2 was outstanding, with a “Chinese growth rate” of 2.2%. Recent signs show that the growth rate has slowed down, but is till sufficient.

5.Flash GDP: Tuesday, 10:00. Following Germany, France, Italy and other countries, the overall growth rate for the Euro-zone will probably show a rise of 0.4% in Q4, slightly faster than 0.3% in Q3. There are fears of a worse slowdown in some of the weaker countries, that will drag the figure lower.

6.German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. Though somewhat overshadowed by the GDP releases, this important German survey of 350 analysts and investors is expected to follow the trend of recent months and advance from 15.4 to 20.2 points, showing growing confidence in the economy. The all-European figure is likely to rise from 25.4 to 31.3 points.

7.Current Account: Thursday, 9:00. This figure is published a long time after the trade balance figures, yet the wide scope still provides volatility for the Euro. The large deficit of over 11 billion reported last month is likely to squeeze down to 6.1 billion and help currency.

8.Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 15:00. This official from Eurostat will probably remain unchanged at -11, reflecting light pessimism. The survey of 2300 people hasn’t moved significantly in recent months.

9.German PPI: Friday, 7:00. Producer prices are rising slowly, still not posing a threat. Following last month’s rise of 0.7%, a rise of 0.6% is likely now.

* All times are GMT

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